How Often Do NFL Favourites Win? 5,267 Games by Moneyline
Twenty seasons of closing moneylines show the market prices NFL favourites with real accuracy. The edges are thin, they sit in specific bands, and blind backing of either side loses.
How often does the NFL moneyline favourite actually win, and does the closing price get it right? I took 5,267 regular-season and playoff games from 2006 to 2025 and set the margin-free closing price beside what happened on the field. The headline answer is that favourites won 66.2% against 66.9% priced, a gap of −0.6 points.
That is a market doing its job. Backing every favourite at the close returned −3.5%, and backing every underdog returned −2.8%. Neither blanket approach pays, so whatever value exists has to be found band by band and situation by situation. That same matchup-first thinking drives my NFL bets of the week.
Closing moneylines track favourite win rates almost band for band
Each row sets the price against the result for one moneyline band. At the short end, favourites of -500 or shorter won 87.2% of 533 games against 85.3% priced. That is the biggest overshoot, at +1.9 points. In the middle, the -299 to -200 band landed exactly on its number, with 68.8% won against 68.8% priced across 1,222 games.
The soft spot is -199 to -150, where favourites won 58.4% against 61.7% priced. That is the weakest band, at −3.3 points. Near coin flips at -119 to -101 also underdelivered, winning 49.3% against 51.7% priced. That band covers only 343 games with a ±5.3 range, though, so I treat it as noise until proven otherwise.
Two-way moneyline, margin removed proportionally. Ties count as not won.
View the data: priced vs delivered
| Priced (margin removed) | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| -500 or shorter (533 games) | 85.3% | 87.2% | ±2.8 |
| -499 to -300 (1,009 games) | 76.5% | 76.9% | ±2.6 |
| -299 to -200 (1,222 games) | 68.8% | 68.8% | ±2.6 |
| -199 to -150 (1,238 games) | 61.7% | 58.4% | ±2.7 |
| -149 to -120 (922 games) | 55.8% | 55.9% | ±3.2 |
| -119 to -101 (343 games) | 51.7% | 49.3% | ±5.3 |
Favourites beat their price in 3 of the 6 bands and matched it in 1. To me, that reads as a well-calibrated market with one band where the favourite looks a little overpriced.
Flat-stake returns split favourites and underdogs by price band
This is where calibration turns into money. Heavy favourites of -500 or shorter returned −0.4%, close to break-even, while the underdogs in those games returned −19.3%. Long shots against a dominant side are the worst ticket on this chart by a distance.
The -199 to -150 band flips the picture. Favourites there posted one of the heaviest losses on the chart, while underdogs returned 5.7%, which fits the overpricing seen in the first chart. The tightest band, -119 to -101, shows a similar tilt: favourites lost almost as badly, and underdogs returned 2.4%.
Closing moneylines, ties refunded. Historical return, not a forecast.
View the data: favourite or underdog: flat-stake return
| Back the favourite | Back the underdog | |
|---|---|---|
| -500 or shorter | −0.4% | −19.3% |
| -499 to -300 | −1.7% | −5.3% |
| -299 to -200 | −2.4% | −3.3% |
| -199 to -150 | −7.7% | +5.7% |
| -149 to -120 | −2.1% | −3.2% |
| -119 to -101 | −7.2% | +2.4% |
| All games | −3.5% | −2.8% |
The caveat I want every reader to hold is this. These are consensus closing lines, which carried a lower margin than typical sportsbook prices before 2023, so the returns here flatter what a bettor would actually have got. On top of that, gaps of a few percent can come from chance at these sample sizes.
Home, road, division and playoff favourites against their prices
Home favourites won 67.3% against 68.4% priced and returned −4.4%. Road favourites did slightly better relative to their price, winning 64.5% against 64.3% priced, a +0.2 gap and a −2.0% return. The market seems to charge a little extra for home comfort.
Division games barely differ from the rest, with both groups sitting at a −0.6 gap. Favourites won 66.7% in division matchups and 66.0% outside them. The row that stands out is the playoffs, where favourites won 62.9% of 229 games against 67.3% priced, a −4.4 gap and a −10.2% return.
| Situation | Games | Priced | Won | Gap (pts) | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favourite | 3,354 | 68.4% | 67.3% | −1.1 | −4.4% |
| Road favourite | 1,829 | 64.3% | 64.5% | +0.2 | −2.0% |
| Division game | 1,869 | 67.4% | 66.7% | −0.6 | −3.6% |
| Non-division game | 3,398 | 66.6% | 66.0% | −0.6 | −3.5% |
| Playoff game | 229 | 67.3% | 62.9% | −4.4 | −10.2% |
I wouldn't build a system on 229 playoff games. What it does tell me is not to pay a premium simply because a team earned the better seed.
Season-by-season favourite win rates swing well around the price
The priced line barely moves from year to year, while the won line jumps around it. The best season for favourites was 2013 at 70.9% against 66.5% priced. The worst was 2006 at 59.4% against 68.2% priced.
The pattern isn't one-way. In 2024 favourites won 70.8% against 65.4% priced, while in 2021 they won 62.1% against 67.8% priced. One season tells you very little about the next.
View the data: favourite win rate season by season
| Won | Priced | |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 59.4% | 68.2% |
| 2007 | 68.3% | 69.0% |
| 2008 | 65.6% | 68.1% |
| 2009 | 69.8% | 70.5% |
| 2010 | 65.5% | 66.0% |
| 2011 | 66.9% | 67.9% |
| 2012 | 64.4% | 66.5% |
| 2013 | 70.9% | 66.5% |
| 2014 | 66.7% | 67.0% |
| 2015 | 62.5% | 65.4% |
| 2016 | 64.5% | 64.7% |
| 2017 | 70.5% | 66.7% |
| 2018 | 65.7% | 66.8% |
| 2019 | 64.2% | 67.3% |
| 2020 | 67.2% | 67.0% |
| 2021 | 62.1% | 67.8% |
| 2022 | 65.4% | 65.4% |
| 2023 | 67.5% | 65.3% |
| 2024 | 70.8% | 65.4% |
| 2025 | 65.8% | 67.0% |
This is why I don't overreact to a single season. Over a short campaign, a sound read can look wrong for months before the sample catches up.
What I take from this
- Respect the closing price. Favourites won 66.2% against 66.9% priced across 5,267 games. Beating the close by guesswork is a long shot.
- Avoid huge underdogs. Underdogs facing favourites of -500 or shorter returned −19.3%. That is the clearest losing pattern in the study.
- Mid-priced favourites look rich. At -199 to -150, favourites won 58.4% against 61.7% priced. That is the band where I scrutinise the favourite hardest.
Questions from readers
What percentage of NFL moneyline favourites win?
Across 5,267 games from 2006 to 2025, the moneyline favourite won 66.2%, with a 95% range of ±1.3 points. The margin-free closing price had them at 66.9%.
Is it profitable to bet every NFL underdog on the moneyline?
No. Backing every underdog at the close returned −2.8%, slightly better than the −3.5% for backing every favourite. Both figures are flattered by low-margin consensus prices.
Do NFL favourites underperform in the playoffs?
In this sample they did. Playoff favourites won 62.9% of 229 games against 67.3% priced and returned −10.2%, although 229 games is a small sample.
I'm Tariq Al-Harbi, based in Riyadh, and I write the NFL bets of the week at htftpredictions.com — breaking down spreads, totals and the matchups that settle them.
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