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I grew up between languages and borders in Luxembourg, and tennis became the one thing that needed no translation โ two players, a court, and a contest stripped to its essentials. What drew me deeper was realising how much complexity sits beneath that simplicity: surface, conditions, scheduling and fatigue all quietly shaping outcomes the ranking never captures. When I read a match, the ranking is only a starting line. I look at how a player moves on the surface in front of them, the hard sets already in their legs, the real story of the head-to-head, and whether a punishing draw has drained someone before they walk on court. Correct-score and set markets in particular reward that kind of close attention. A clay grinder and a fast-court server can carry near-identical rankings and effectively play different sports. Six years of writing this has made me wary of short-priced favourites in best-of-three, where one tight tiebreak rewrites everything. I prefer to set out my reasoning clearly and let readers weigh it rather than pretend tennis is tidier than it is. โ Camille Hoffmann

Across 92,712 ATP and WTA matches, tennis favourites won 69.6%, slightly more than closing odds implied, yet backing them all still lost money.
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